2014 - Voting Analysis

This year, for the first time, the EBU released full split-votes for every jury member and televote.

The following table gives the position on the night for each country, followed by:
Jury: the position as determined by an average of every jury's song rankings.
Tele: the position as determined by an average of every televote's song rankings.
Σ: the position as determined by these two scores combined: slightly different to the actual ranking which only collated the (weighted) top 10s from each nation.
Δ: the number of places difference between the jury and televote rankings, +ve in favour of the televote.
JΔΣ: the difference between the jury vote and the combined jury and televote placings, +ve in favour of the combined vote.
TΔΣ: the difference between the televote and the combined jury and televote placings, +ve in favour of the combined vote.
AV: the placings given by the AView jury (top 10 only).
JΔ: the difference between our vote and the jury vote, +ve in favour of our vote.
TΔ: the difference between our vote and the televote, +ve in favour of our vote.
ΣΔ: the difference between our vote and the combined placings, +ve in favour of our vote.

Click on the table headers to sort the columns:

Pos.
NATION
Jury
Tele
Σ Δ

JΔΣ TΔΣ
AV
JΔ
TΔ
ΣΔ
1 Austria 2 1 1 1
1 0
5 -3 -4 -4
2 Netherlands 1 2 2 -1
0 1




3 Sweden 3 3 3 0
0 0




4 Armenia 8 4 4 4
4 0




5 Hungary 4 9 5 -5
-1 4




6 Ukraine 12 7 6 5
6 1
4 8 3 2
7 Russia 19 8 14 11
5 -6
1 18 7 13
8 Norway 9 12 7 -3
2 5




9 Spain 10 13 9 -3
1 4




10 Denmark 11 15 11 -4
1 5




11 Romania 16 10 12 6
6 0




12 Finland 6 16 8 -10
-2 8




13 Switzerland 20 6 10 14
10 -4




14 Poland 24 5 15 19
9 -10
6 18 -1 9
15 Iceland 15 17 17 -2
-2 0




16 Belarus 21 14 21 7
0 -7
7 14 7 14
17 UK 13 18 16 -5
-3 2




18 Germany 14 19 19 -5
-4 1
9 5 10 9
19 Montenegro 18 25 23 -7
-5 2




20 Greece 22 11 18 11
4 -7
10 12 1 8
21 Azerbaijan 7 26 20 -19
-11 8




22 Italy 23 22 24 1
-1 -2
2 21 20 22
23 Malta 5 21 13 -16
-5 11




24 San Marino
26 20 25 6
1 -5
3 23 17 22
25 Slovenia 17 23 22 -6
-5 1




26 France 25 24 26 1
-1 -2
8 17 16 18

There was minor controversy when the split votes revealed that the UK televote had put Poland first but the jurors had put them last giving them a combined placing of 11th: nul points (on the AView jury we avoid such extremes as this by using points weightings rather than placings). The UK jurors had the folksy cheese of Malta first, though no single juror felt that it was the best song (they went for Austria, Netherlands, Spain, Finland and Sweden respectfully). The UK jurors had the fifth greatest standard deviation of all the national juries (μJσ): an average deviation of 5.2 places; the most devious jury was Macedonia at 5.94 places, and the most harmonious were Georgia whose jury vote was barred for having an identical top eight placings across the board. Azerbaijan had the lowest permitted deviation at 0.94 places.

Sweden had the greatest harmony between jury vote and televote (μJΔT), with an average difference in placing of less than four votes. Montenegro is the country most in need of a Eurovision revolt with the jury being over 9 places awry of popular sentiment.

Austria's jury were the most consistent with the final overall placings (μJΔP) and Albania's were the most aberrant. The voting public of Belgium, Finland and Latvia are the most representative of Europe as a whole (μTΔP), while Georgia's are the most individual (just like their writing). Comparing each nation's combined vote with the overall picture (μΣΔP), Greece are the most consistent, and Albania (again) the most whacky.

More importantly, the Azerbaijani jurors were the closest national jury to our own AView voting preferences (μJΔA) and we have little time for Latvia's great and good. The burghers of Belarus and Moldova give the closest televote to our opinions (μTΔA) and Denmark are just wrong! (Note, the smaller numbers for the last two columns in the table (right) are down to our jury only placing the top 10 songs (everything else was placed 11th for mathematical purposes (both for us and the national votes)). The Belarusian and Moldovan televotes are actually the closest votes of any kind to our placings. Maria Sinatsaki of Greece was the closest juror to our tastes: she's an '80s-born DJ and TV presenter, and her placings were an average of 2 places out from ours. The Latvian jury had four of the ten most disagreeable totals of the year, with Edgars Belickis (an '80s-born composer, producer, transcriber and saxophonist) playing our nemesis at four and a quarter places removed.

Our views were more in tune with the televotes than the juries (JΔ - we differed by 86 places in total): Poland and Greece were our most matched placings against the overall phone vote (out by one), while the Italian entry was grossly under-rated by public and jurors combined. The jurors were broadly right about Austria but little else (TΔ - we had a total aberration of 139 places). This follows the pattern set last year, where the televote was more "correct" than the jury vote. However, our aberration from this year's combined placings (ΣΔ) was twice the size of 2013: an obscene 121 places out. Italy and San Mario were the most overlooked acts this year, and all of our selections except Austria performed lower in real life than we felt they deserved.

Back to the Polish question, then. It must be pointed out that the disparity between jury and televote was not limited to just the UK: were one to remove all juries and just rely on the mob, Poland would've come 5th, not 15th. There was a 19 point gulf between the public and the panel (Δ). An equally large disagreement in the other direction concerned Azerbaijan's Kate Bush balladry (make of that what you will). Austria won the televote, but the Radio 2 -friendly, Sting-tinged country-schmaltz of the Netherlands edged the jury tally. It's worth pointing out, for completion's sake, that Austria came third in both the UK jury and UK phone vote (with consistency enough to be placed first in the combined vote). All of this is reminder again that the current scoring system penalises songs that divide opinion, and potentially rewards mediocrity as a consequence. Or perhaps it's protection against mucky tripe and the expat effect. Place your votes now.




 
NATION
μJσ
μJΔT
μJΔP
μTΔP
μΣΔP
μJΔA
μTΔA
Albania 4.61
10.2
10.2 2.69
Armenia 3.01 7.68 9.23 5.92 8.23 3.31 2.15
Austria 5.33 5.92 4.27 5.42 4.19 3.54 3.46
Azerbaijan 0.94 6 9.5 6.04 8.04 2.38 2.15
Belarus 1.71 6.8 6.54 5 5.54 2.46 1.85
Belgium 3.93 7.62 5.38 3.69 3.46 3.31 3.31
Denmark 4.26 4.56 4.54 5.31 4.15 3.08 3.69
Estonia 4.3 6.38 5.15 4.08 3.69 3.46 2.62
Finland 4.18 6.32 6 3.69 4.15 3.77 3.23
France 4.36 7.68 6.62 4.08 4.62 3.65 2.96
Georgia


7.15 7.15
2.46
Germany 2.99 5.36 5.92 4.92 4.85 3.77 2.77
Greece 3.9 6.64 4.85 4.31 3.08 2.58 2.65
Hungary 5.24 8.08 6.81 4.81 4.81 3.31 3.38
Iceland 3.18 6.88 6.19 4.58 5.27 3.77 3.31
Ireland 5.44 6.62 6.54 5 4.92 3.69 3.38
Israel 4.77 6.08 6.08 5 4.46 3.38 2.38
Italy 4.44 7.2 7.23 6.38 7.08 2.42 2.04
Latvia 3.48 7.92 6 3.69 3.54 4 2.08
Lithuania 4.59 7.23 5.31 5 3.62 3.69 2.15
Macedonia 5.94 7.46 7.08 6 5.62 3.23 3.23
Malta 4.75 6.64 8.19 5.42 6.04 2.69 2.85
Moldova 4.14 3.85 5.69 5.69 5.54 2.46 1.85
Montenegro 1.01 9.12 9.65 6.12 7.88 2.46 2.77
Netherlands 2.77 4.56 5.31 3.92 3.85 3.77 3.38
Norway 4.16 6 6.92 5.23 5.31 3.69 3.38
Poland 3.95 7.76 6.92 5.31 5.46 3.88 2.58
Portugal 3.75 7.85 5.69 4.15 3.54 3.85 2.85
Romania 4.31 4.72 5.27 4.35 4.65 3.69 3.62
Russia 3.38 5.92 7.27 5.73 6.04 3.08 2.38
San Marino 4.49
6.85
6.85 3.92
Slovenia 4.79 7.52 6.73 5.65 5.88 3.54 3.31
Spain 4.19 6.72 5.42 4.58 4.35 3.31 3.08
Sweden 4.56 3.68 5.27 4.58 4.5 3.46 3.38
Switzerland 4.53 5.2 6.04 5.27 5.35 3.62 2.77
Ukraine 3.16 5.28 6 5.77 5.38 2.65 2.04
UK 5.2 7.12 6.81 5.65 5.58 3.92 3.54